still looking for perspective in the blather

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

the link is for the page johns hopkins has created for globally tracking covid-19 ( thanks for the link steve! ) and i have changed over to it from the cdc because the cdc's numbers are hopelessly stale...which is probably a function of the current administration and its need to spin the whole plague in a politically expedient manner...events may put paid to that ( and i see grist for a rant post in a bit )...whatever the cause, these numbers are far more current...and the still show only arithmetic growth in the spread of the disease...one supposes the number are greater with a multitude of unreported cases...an epidemiologist quoted in the toronto globe and mail tells me i have a forty to seventy percent chance of contracting this within a year...and i could die...have a "mild" case...or not know i have it at all ( and so be a carrier )...the possibilities remain abstract at best for the nonce...

still looking to try to square up the numbers with the empty shelves, layoffs, stay at home orders, travel documents ( i have seen more specimens of those recently...from gas stations to grocery stores the internal passports are proliferating ) i wandered over to the cdc ( and it's still "estimated" figures, although, in this case it is understandable and probably they could not compile more than estimates ) to have a look at this year's flu season...

the flu is taking a much heavier toll at the moment...even if you go by the lowest figures...and has been going on far longer than covid-19 ( at least one surmises...who knows how long this virus had actually been around )...there is speculation that covid-19 may slow with warmer weather and pick up again in the autumn...extrapolating past virus experience into the future ( have a look at hume's thoughts about "inferences" posted a few posts above ) and that it will evolve into a flu-like virus with seasonal impact...which, hopefully, would mutate into a much less lethal ( for some...that whole 3% mortality is open to question...if there are significantly more unreported cases it would be invalid ) variety and not kill the hosts...so the end result, for me, is more questions than answers and a lingering feeling that the whole picture is distorted from ignorance, venality, and political expediency...no one knows and probably won't until hindsight kicks in down the road...human cognition isn't what it is cracked up to be and all the guesswork going on here is a potent line of evidence in support of that.