Friday, March 6, 2020
lag, obfuscation, incompetence, fear mongering, any of the above?
"the sicknesse is got into our parish this week..."samuel pepys diary 26 july 1665___________________i am having a great deal of trouble squaring up the reports of the cdc and the new york times even with a time lag...
the cdc claims one hundred and sixty-four cases...
while the times is claiming more than two hundred and fifty...that i can accept as a reflection of the four p.m. cut off from the previous day at the cdc...
the maps ( and excuse the n y times one...the screen shot business is not cooperating ) on the other hand are disturbing...the cdc is showing twenty states while the n y times seems to be showing twenty-seven..including my home state...the cdc still does not show nebraska however it has been on the times map since the third of the month...the cdc does have a disclaimer that "data reported by states should be considered more up to date" so i am inclined at this point to run with the information in the times as opposed to the somewhat sketchy reports emanating from the government...that should not be a surprise...the government cooks the books every way it can to present itself in the best light..or, the light it perceives as best...the current administration is, possibly, more creative than others in its numerical interpretation of the data and since the cdc has been gutted by a "no to science" political cadre it may be best to use their input as a sort of comparison as opposed to some sort of pence informed gospel...whichever way you analyze it there is discrepancy...
one last point...the markets rebounded a bit from the earlier numbers on the times front page...they still fell...and the times is relentless in its coverage of the horrors this could wreak on the "economy"...they may have better numbers than the cdc but they never lose sight of exchange value...
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