self preservation versus the utilitarian

"As for my little family, having thus, as I have said, laid in a store of bread, butter, cheese, and beer, I took my friend and physician's advice, and locked myself up, and my family, and resolved to suffer the hardship of living a few months without flesh-meat, rather than to purchase it at the hazard of our lives." daniel defoe. a journal of the plague year.

daniel's protagonist ( a saddler by trade incidentally ) "laid in a store of bread, butter, cheese, and beer" and practiced "social distancing"...he also discussed the fact that shops were "thinly supplied"...goods were scarce and there were many who could not find basics...something of an ethical dilemma...the current pandemic has a full pallet of ethical dilemmas based on the very human trait of self-preservation versus the ethical postulate of utilitarianism "the greatest good for the greatest number" and it has implications for the seemingly mundane to the overtly political...

it is becoming clear that the medical establishment has been something less than forthcoming about the effectiveness of surgical masks as they ask us to donate any we might possess to local hospitals...admittedly nurses and doctors are coming into contact with this virus on a scale much larger than someone going out to hoard toilet paper...they are clearly at greater risk and deserve to be protected as much as is possible...their self-preservation is as important as that of anyone else...but does it take precedence? the utilitarian argument would probably be that yes it does because they are in a position to do greater good for more people than toilet paper hoarders are...the good of the many is more important than the good of the few...so donate your masks...this, of course, may endanger the hoarders...but who cares? they are a distinct minority and their ethos is questionable...

i am supposed to stay at home...that the stay at home order has so many loopholes in it that staying home is mostly voluntary and that the governor had waffled on extending it ( to the best of my knowledge ) through the month of april is of no real importance...the idea is i am supposed to stay home for the greater good unless i need a pizza...personal restrictions for the greater good...well..okay...take out food is not a priority for me anyway...still if i find i need necessities i can go and, at least , try to procure them...i am not locked in...

looking around it seems that quite a few people are locked in and out over this simultaneously and here is where the whole utilitarian "greatest good" starts to come unglued...whose greater good? rohingyas or don trump"s? syrians or elon musk's? this is where benthamite utilitarianism becomes a political weapon for wealth and power..."the good of the people" becomes an excuse for closing borders to any "other" that might not fit your cultural norms and the very human trait of self preservation clouds the issue and entrenches the elite status quo who are using one instinct in the polity to override another which is empathy with suffering and an inclination to relieve it where possible...

there are some ugly subtexts to this and human emotions are fairly easy to manipulate if you put people in circumstances that allow them to control your frame of reference...got surgical masks? wear them if you feel the need...especially if you are feeling a bit fragile...you have an obligation to protect others as well as yourself.

immune to bombast

"...therefore the plague much greater than people take it to be." diary of samuel pepys. 30 august 1665

so much for "rarin' to go by easter"...so much for actually knowing what is transpiring in the contagion world...i am fairly well convinced that either the powers that be are clueless about the extent...

or they are keeping quiet because there is enough panic already...either way the extent is an unknown and will probably remain so if indeed a majority of the cases are "mild" and go unreported/tested or even pass unnoticed by those who are ill...

certainly johns hopkins has the freshest numbers i have found so far and these show a staggering minority of the population anywhere with the disease...fresh probably doesn't mean exact...still a better guide than the cdc...that the virus is here for an extended stay seems obvious...the question is what will the reaction be? is the governor of this state going to follow the federal lead and leave large numbers of citizens locked out of their jobs? this is the thirteenth day i have been on an enforced leave..my financial position is fairly solid ( however, not unassailable )...some of my peers are not so fortunate...the workplace we shared was their second, or, possibly, third job and they are doubtlessly struggling after a two week hiatus ( and who knows how their other jobs have been impacted ) and if the "social distancing" ( who makes these terms up? ) continues will the "essential" jobs remain "essential"? will gun stores still be open? take out food? both of critical importance in this crisis, however you have to draw the line somewhere and the economy will certainly militate towards a "return to work"...the engine of consumption is breaking down ( i have not spent any money it two days and i am thinking today will be the third )...look at the price of a gallon of gasoline if you need a frame of reference ( or a barrel of oil which is at $21.51 last time i looked...$.391 a gallon..russia's economy is unsettled...every economy is unsettled...what will "the market" do today? i am told the asian markets are down because of "fears of a global pandemic"...perhaps well founded "fears" )...so i will be looking in on the statehouse news today looking to see what the government of this state does as it tears its hair out over the dilemma of "stay at home and staunch the spread", or "rarin' to go by easter"...look for updates.

the medium is the message

"One mischief was, that if the poor people asked these mock astrologers whether there would be a plague or no, they all agreed in general to answer 'Yes', for that kept up their trade. And had the people not been kept in a fright about that, the wizards would presently have been rendered useless, and their craft had been at an end." daniel defoe. a journal of the plague year_____

marshall mcluhhan was prescient in maintaining that electronic media took the linear progression of information out of the hands of the specialist and exploded it into "all-at-once" where everyone has input ( look at where i am publishing this ) and that the medium becomes the message...that leaves out content, the intent of that content, but not necessarily "mischief"...for the umpteenth time, covid-19 is nothing to be cavalier about...it is here...growing, still arithmetically not exponentially, however expanding...we all need to be cautious and think about what we are doing, how we are doing it, and why...that still does not negate the fact that coverage of this is distorted...and that disproportionate coverage is feeding a fear that seems to be distorting rational thought in its own turn...the explosion of "all-at-once" media has allowed me to tour english speaking news and the news is pretty monochromatic wherever i go...

over at the "beeb"...

a rather haggard looking boris is aping trumpy in a mailing about covid-19 to "every british household"...

large swathes of the site are devoted tot he virus and its effects...

and even the sports section is chock full of covid stories ( the diverting circus may be delayed significantly...we are all doomed to reruns )...

the english speaking media in india is in tune with the rest of the "information highway"...

full of stories about the dangers, reassurances about fuel supplies, and the inevitable "economic relief package" stories ( and here, again, we need to have a close look at who is receiving the largest share of "relief" )...

there is media in english in russia...

and it is up to its neck in covid-19 as well...

and it is inescapable here as well...doubtlessly i could find more examples...coals to newcastle...i believe i have mentioned before that some people seem to enjoy being frightened...if not why so many horror/slasher movies over the years? and that may be a contributing factor to the distorted coverage...media sells a product and if people are buying fright the media will try to meet demand...there are other events transpiring in the world...and i have to wonder how many we are missing here...how much misdirection and slight-of-hand is going on...a u s relief bill with 98 sections and what has to amount to thousands of sub-sections covering the disbursement of $2 trillion provides significant room for financial prestidigitation...someone is probably paying attention to that...and trying to tell us...who is listening with all the noise about death and economic destruction? call me paranoid ( wouldn't be the first time...doubtlessly won't be the last ) but i have to think there are a few with significant profit at the public expense as an agenda and, while they are certainly not manufacturing the very real dangers of this outbreak and the expansive coverage those have produced, it makes an excellent smokescreen...when you look closely at something you are, of necessity, looking away from something else...hard to know what's going on "in front of your nose".______________________________________________________________________________addendum: in today's new york times, seventeen of twenty-three articles in the front section were about the virus...every section had at least one article about the virus's impact on sports or arts or travel...and there was a "special section" entitled "the great empty" with photos of deserted public spaces.

still looking for perspective in the blather

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

the link is for the page johns hopkins has created for globally tracking covid-19 ( thanks for the link steve! ) and i have changed over to it from the cdc because the cdc's numbers are hopelessly stale...which is probably a function of the current administration and its need to spin the whole plague in a politically expedient manner...events may put paid to that ( and i see grist for a rant post in a bit )...whatever the cause, these numbers are far more current...and the still show only arithmetic growth in the spread of the disease...one supposes the number are greater with a multitude of unreported cases...an epidemiologist quoted in the toronto globe and mail tells me i have a forty to seventy percent chance of contracting this within a year...and i could die...have a "mild" case...or not know i have it at all ( and so be a carrier )...the possibilities remain abstract at best for the nonce...

still looking to try to square up the numbers with the empty shelves, layoffs, stay at home orders, travel documents ( i have seen more specimens of those recently...from gas stations to grocery stores the internal passports are proliferating ) i wandered over to the cdc ( and it's still "estimated" figures, although, in this case it is understandable and probably they could not compile more than estimates ) to have a look at this year's flu season...

the flu is taking a much heavier toll at the moment...even if you go by the lowest figures...and has been going on far longer than covid-19 ( at least one surmises...who knows how long this virus had actually been around )...there is speculation that covid-19 may slow with warmer weather and pick up again in the autumn...extrapolating past virus experience into the future ( have a look at hume's thoughts about "inferences" posted a few posts above ) and that it will evolve into a flu-like virus with seasonal impact...which, hopefully, would mutate into a much less lethal ( for some...that whole 3% mortality is open to question...if there are significantly more unreported cases it would be invalid ) variety and not kill the hosts...so the end result, for me, is more questions than answers and a lingering feeling that the whole picture is distorted from ignorance, venality, and political expediency...no one knows and probably won't until hindsight kicks in down the road...human cognition isn't what it is cracked up to be and all the guesswork going on here is a potent line of evidence in support of that.

warm colors

i have maintained from the beginning that this is nothing to treat in a cavalier fashion...caution...vigilance...prudence...apply one or all three...no one needs a respiratory disease...so distance yourself and wash your hands...be safe...i have also said from the start that i am having a great deal of difficulty squaring the numbers ( 533,416 out of 7.6 billion or so world population...a percentage of a percentage point ) with the paranoia, panic buying, media focus ( capitalization? ) and general pervasive stench of pestilential fear not seen since the seventeenth century...

everywhere you look graphics about covid-19 have warm or downright hot colors ( although i notice "the market" is in green...good times when the boodle from washington floods down the pipeline )...red! panic! danger! death and disorder! we need more guns! the mob will run amok in end times!! all effective marketing...and then...

i wander over to the cdc website...and once you get past the home page and the "updated" and the date in red, the colors turn much cooler and the advice they give is..."stay home: most people with covid-19 have mild illnesses and are able to recover at home without medical care."...like a cold, right? stay put...don't spread it around...the input is in serious conflict with itself here and you ( or, at least i ) have to wonder if anyone "in authority" has a clue...admittedly this is...like all plagues...an urban disease...needs a minimum population to sustain the virus pool...which is why new york and los angeles are having such a poor time of it...my county is mixed urban, suburban, rural with an estimated population of 496,005 and 31 cases of covid-19 confirmed ( although, since it is mostly mild, there may be a lot more of it around and no one knows )...a small portion of the population...and i do not have anything cogent to say about whom we should look to for precise information since, near as i can surmise, none exists beyond a clear number of confirmed cases...past that i believe we are on our own...so stay safe at home when you can...sanitize surfaces ( yesterday i saw bleach in the store again...no toilet paper or sanitizing wipes...but bleach will kill anything...including you...so be careful ) wash your hands...and have a nice cup of tea while you work through this...this is no time for panic.

a paternalistic government

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3548/text#toc-idC62A2A4676F44E44B6A0D677C490FD17

the above is a link to the CARE legislation ( courtesy of my future daughter-in-law...thanks Jess! ) for economic relief for you and me..and much more for the corporate world ( see today's "a fugitive from polite society" post for a more ruthless examination )...

this is the most pertinent one of the ninety-eight sections ( i have not had the patience to count the sub-sections yet...there are probably thousands )..it is fabricated in obtuse language with, i am sure, obfuscation as the intent...making an accurate accounting less likely...this is not the thrust of today's installment however...my state reports 168 more cases of covid-19 today with 31 in my county which is a jump of 12... and 17 deaths...an increase of 3...the cdc reports 68,440 cases which is up 13,978..and 994 deaths...an increase of 243...not to worry however..in the face of these numbers ( and, frankly, i still have difficulty squaring them with the paranoid hoarding which is still in evidence here ) the postal worker delivered this:

a reassuring ( and, given media attention, profoundly tautological ) gem of advice straight from the white house to my mailbox..it is dated ten days ago...a quick federal response as far as these things go ( a relief bill still is not passed the house or signed...and that has been going on at least a week..who knows how much longer that will be a subject of partisan contention )...that i have been aware of and practicing most of these ( the bars and restaurants are closed here for all but "take-out" [" you want that scotch over ice or neat?"] rendering the presidential advice of not "eating or drinking in bars or restaurants" moot and i don't eat food i don't cook [often] and i quit drinking in the 80s ) for more than ten days and i have mostly been home since the governor told me, in an offhand and not terribly serious way, to say here..so i am being a good citizen despite my view that these people couldn't find their asses with both hands and a flashlight..the element of farce is never far from the surface here...camus' absurdity surely fits the situation...so we wait because the government and media have made the polity unhinged with fear...there must have been a more thoughtful and timely way to have addressed this...it was not...basically because leadership does not know much of anything you or i do not..mom drummed the hand washing business into me long ago..thanks anyway don..she had you covered in the 1950s.

to all whom these presents may come, greetings...

"On the other hand it is incredible and scarce to be imagined, how the posts of houses and corners of streets were plastered over with doctors' bills and papers of ignorant fellows, quacking and tampering in physic, and inviting the people to come to them for remedies, which was generally set off with such flourishes as these, viz.: 'Infallible preventive pills against the plague.' 'Neverfailing preservatives against the infection.' 'Sovereign cordials against the corruption of the air.' 'Exact regulations for the conduct of the body in case of an infection.' 'Anti-pestilential pills.' 'Incomparable drink against the plague, never found out before.' 'An universal remedy for the plague.' 'The only true plague water.' 'The royal antidote against all kinds of infections and such a number more that I cannot reckon up; and if I could, would fill a book of themselves to set them down." daniel defoe. a journal of the plague year._______________

someone should muzzle the president toute de suite and stop his bogus quackery...plus the whole easter business is either incredibly naive or hopelessly optimistic ("optimism is cowardice"-ozzie spengler..."optimism is a cognitive distortion of outcomes"-me )...either way his statesman-like demeanor is not helping...and the governing system as a whole is looking ineffective ( although my state has approved me for unemployment benefits...mostly, i think. because of the limitations imposed by the executive order we are going to parse in a bit ) and struggling to get a grip on almost anything...

you might be able to find toilet paper if you have enough gold krugerrands...even then it might be a struggle...crises highlight necessity rather than desires ( and that , too, will come up in the executive order...and will have a lot to do with corporate whining soon enough ) and, apparently, toilet paper is the new medium of exchange......

the governor's "stay at home" order went into effect at 11:59 p.m. yesterday , and while there are measures some will call "draconian"...if you own a movie theater or a nail spa, or if you are burlington coat factory or macy's you are shuttered until april seventh...you can have "minimum business operations" which pretty much means you can have someone there on fire watch and to make sure the heat is on but there will be no browsing the aisles by shoppers...however the exchange addicted still have twenty-three classifications of "essential businesses and operations" and a dozen or so reasons they can leave home to visit them...from working there to shopping for groceries...but walmart has more than groceries so you can pick up some kitsch home decor as well...no one will object...so basically this has enough loopholes that despite "enforcement by local law enforcement and other government agencies" that no one need cower in the basement if they choose not to...and that whole "social distancing" which applies to standing in line at supermarkets? not the one i was at yesterday...people were crowding the check-out lanes with their purchases ( no toilet paper though ) although, admittedly, i heard no coughing...clearing your throat = instant pariah...

a nameless "someone" sent me a photo of their "travel document" which explains their participation in "essential services" and begs authority to allow them freedom of movement...give the somewhat lax wording of the executive order it hardly seems necessary...however...could this be the first step towards internal passports? there is still considerable room for this to be the reichstag fire and i have zero faith in politicians...you may call me paranoid if you like..and i could call you a sheep...hopefully it won't come to that ( i know, creeping optimism )...it still bears watching/considering...the yahoos are braying and lining up to buy more guns...interesting times...the number of cases in the country and my state and my county are up...expected...still arithmetic growth...nothing especially exponential yet...we will see what today's numbers bring...explosive spread is not anything like impossible...especially with al the loopholes...give it time and we will see.

time

"that passed the time___ waiting for godot. samuel beckett

let's have a look at my state...the political one...and my physical/mental one...

oh, the national politicians are still wrangling ( it is an election year )...

and "the market" continues to swing wildly between hope and catatonic despair...

and people are still emptying store shelves as quickly as their fearful hands can grab stuff..and at the moment that seems to be a dwindling selection...and that's all germane but not the focus today...the governor of this state just signed what the papers are calling a "stay at home order" yesterday ( which takes effect at 11:59 p.m. today which strikes me as downright weird...perhaps he wanted to give the population one more free day to infect one another )...it has a multiplicity of loopholes and, even though local mayors are promising they police will "enforce" the order fully, it seems people will still be able to empty store shelves at will...perhaps more politically expedient than effective...since it is in effect until 7 april the reopening of the retail store where i work will be delayed yet another week ( which won't help their bottom line if congress doesn't get off its ass ) so i am left with a surfeit of time on my hands...which is unusual..i am inclined to stay busy for a number of important reasons we will leave for later and so filling time becomes a challenge...as a primer on waiting and the passage of time i watched ( yet again ) the excellent production of "waiting for godot" from the "beckett on film" series that was made for beckett's centennial ( and posted a link to it on my facebook page )...i would recommend it to anyone who wants insight into the absurdity of 1) human life and, 2) boredom...i have been reading a lot...samuel pepys' diary, a journal of the plague year, plagues and peoples, the plague by camus, ( sense a theme ? ) and, of late, james gleick's book "time travel"...ostensibly a review of science fiction literature on time travel...with h g wells "the time machine" as a start point...it quickly delves into the perception of time from the standpoint of physics and philosophy...its newtonian rigidity...einteinian relativity...philosophical elasticity...from st. augustine's "what then is time? if no one asks me, I know. if I wish to explain it to one that asks me, I know not" to einstein's denial of the possibility of simultaneity to john banville's " even here, at this table, the light that is the image of my eyes takes time, infinitesimal, yet time, to reach your eyes, and so it is that everywhere we look, everywhere we are looking into the past"...an all-round a good read for the time because time is behaving oddly and i begin to understand why the character orr from "catch-22" did only boring things to make his life seem longer...there are interesting things to do around the house as long as human attention cooperates...tedium is the enemy...einstein puts us into our own, individual frame of reference viz time...mine is oscillating...elastically shrinking and stretching...there are more challenges from this virus beyond physical, political, and economic feebleness...if the weather cooperates i will go putter around the yard...if not, brace yourselves...there will be fresh numbers from the state and cdc later today....and we haven't even touched on entropy yet...and this can't help but invigorate entropy.