Sunday, April 19, 2020

rate of recovery

"time inured them to it all, and they ventured everywhere afterwards without hesitation." daniel defoe. a journal of the plague year
allegedly a free country, people have a right to express a demand to go about unfettered by virus paranoia and conspiracy ( if they are actually in difficult financial straights over this one could sympathize to a degree ) and if they want to parrot the grifter-in-chief they may as far as i am concerned... big greed needs a fix so it is natural that the "business community" would be in approval...even if they do it in private...let the bozo foment for them, that's why they hired him...there may be good reason to rethink this position though...
i will admit i have just begun to look at this in a serious manner and the numbers are incomplete...however at fist look 66,819 people "recovered" from the covid-19 virus in the 97 days since the first case was reported in the u s works out to about 689 "recoveries" a day average...
at the same time there have been 735287 confirmed cases in the same period ( per johns hopkins )...that's 7580 new cases a day on average... a 11.01 to 1 ratio of illnesses to recoveries...it would seem a two week recovery period may be an underestimate...yes the number of cases compared tot he whole population is low...one wonders how many unreported and asymptomatic cases there are...no one knows...perhaps the decision to err on the side of caution is not an error...
according to local media the governor has extended the "stay at home" order ( unless you need a pizza or a six pack or a .357 ) until the first of next month...i have not seen an "official" executive order on the government web site yet...that will be forthcoming soon no doubt...put off the official waffle ( on april sixth he shortened the duration and scheduled its end for tomorrow ) as long as possible...so..ten more day s at home and then who knows how long the "start up" will take...this will ripple on for years

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